Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for MANUEL-13 in Mexico from 13 Sep 2013 21:00 UTC to 14 Sep 2013 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MANUEL-13

in Mexico

14 Sep 2013 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANUEL-13 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	150 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	121 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (19 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	121 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Sep 2013 15:00	84	No people	No people	Mexico
2	13 Sep 2013 21:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
3	14 Sep 2013 03:00	101	No people	No people	Mexico
4	14 Sep 2013 09:00	101	No people	No people	Mexico
5	14 Sep 2013 15:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	9/13/2013 3:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.7, -101.3
2	9/13/2013 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	15.6, -102.1
3	9/14/2013 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.3, -102.5
4	9/14/2013 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.3, -102.4
5	9/14/2013 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	210000 people	16.2, -102.4	Mexico
5	9/15/2013	Tropical storm	93	no people	1 million people	17, -102.6	Mexico
5	9/15/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.8 million people	18.3, -103.2	Mexico
5	9/16/2013	Tropical storm	64	no people	1.9 million people	19.5, -104	Mexico
5	9/16/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	20.5, -104.7

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Colima
Mexico	Jalisco
Mexico	Michoacan
Mexico	Nayarit
Mexico	Guerrero

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Manzanillo	Colima	Mexico	City	110000 people
Atoyac	Jalisco	Mexico	City	5300 people
Apatzingan	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	94000 people
Ahuacatlán	Nayarit	Mexico	City	6300 people
Armería	Colima	Mexico	City	16000 people
Tamazula de Gordiano	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Puerto Vallarta	Jalisco	Mexico	City	190000 people
Zacoalco de Torres	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Ciudad Guzmán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Colima	Colima	Mexico	Major city	130000 people
Tecomán	Colima	Mexico	City	75000 people
Ameca	Jalisco	Mexico	City	35000 people
Ixtlán del Río	Nayarit	Mexico	City	21000 people
Cocula	Jalisco	Mexico	City	14000 people
Coalcomán	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	10000 people
Talpa de Allende	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Autlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	40000 people
Tecalitlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	13000 people
Ahulalulco de Mercado	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Sayula	Jalisco	Mexico	City	25000 people
Etzatlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Altata, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2013 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (28 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 19 Sep 2013 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Sep 2013 03:00	Altata	Mexico	0.7
	19 Sep 2013 02:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.6
	19 Sep 2013 03:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.5
	15 Sep 2013 12:00	Maruata	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2013 13:00	Bucerias	Mexico	0.3
	19 Sep 2013 01:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2013 17:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 18:00	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 17:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 14:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 18:00	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 09:00	Chula	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 19:00	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 09:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 09:00	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 20:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 19:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 11:00	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 21:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 07:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 16:00	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 22:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2013 22:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 08:00	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 22:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 05:00	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 21:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2013 21:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.